基于盲数理论的绵远河不同水期水环境容量研究

Study on water environment capacity of Mianyuan River in different water periods based on blind number theory

为了充分考虑河流水环境系统中各类参数的不确定性,基于盲数理论构建水环境容量盲数模型,按照枯、平、丰3个不同水期计算绵远河广汉段总磷水环境容量及消减量。结果显示:该河段枯、平、丰不同水期总磷容量动态区间分别为-233.97^-4.38 kg/d,4.48~56.29 kg/d和99.38~251.76 kg/d,枯、平水期总磷消减量分别为60.48,12.76 kg/d,丰水期为0,剩余容量为115.70 kg/d。相比不确定性方法,基于盲数理论计算的水环境容量更接近河流实际变化情况,具有较高的可信度。将确定性方法与不确定性方法有效结合,提出"不同水期可变污染物消减模型",可得到更科学合理的排污消减数据,为水资源利用、水质管控提供支撑。

Considering the uncertainties of various parameters in river environment system,a blind number model of river environment capacity is established based on blind number theory. We calculate the total phosphorus capacity and reduction amount of total phosphorus in Guanghan section of the Mianyuan River in dry,normal and abundant water periods. The results showed that the dynamic range of surplus total phosphorus capacity was-233. 97 ~ 4. 38 kg/d,4. 48 ~ 56. 29 kg/d,99. 38 ~251. 76 kg/d respectively. In the dry and the normal water periods,the reduction amounts of total phosphorus are 60. 48 kg/d and 12. 76 kg/d. In the abundant water period,the reduction amount of total phosphorus is 0 and the surplus capacity is 115. 7 kg/d. The blind mean value of water environment capacity is closer to the actual change of river,showing a high reliability. A variable pollutant reduction model for different water periods is put forward by combining deterministic approach and uncertainty approach to obtain more scientific and reasonable data,providing support for water resources utilization and water quality control.