复杂舰船目标毁伤评估模型建立方法研究

Research of the Method of the Establishment about the Warship-damage Assessment

针对舰船目标毁伤效果评估问题的复杂性和困难,利用贝叶斯网络在不确定性推理计算方面的优势,计算总结出目标舰船毁伤后舱室的毁伤规律,同时根据同层节点不同工作流程关系,分别采用维修时间统计法和权重对比法确定各节点不同状态组合参数,完成贝叶斯网络评估模型的建立,较好地推理计算了目标舰船模型中所有可能工况的总体毁伤结果,得到全工况舰船目标总体毁伤状态表,结合蒙特卡洛模拟导弹打靶试验结果,进一步推导出导弹对舰船目标的总体毁伤概率,实现反舰导弹毁伤威力的定量评估。

According to the complexity and difficulty of the Warship-damage Assessment,in view of the advantages of the Bayesian network in processing indefinite information,get the environment data about the three typical positions of the model about the ship,through the summarize of the rule of the damage in the cabins,completed the establishment of the Bayesian Networks about the Warship Damage Assessment. Drawn the inferences finely about all conditions about warship mode,get the whole table of all status about Warship-damage,and according to the probability of happening about each condition,deduced the whole probability of Warship-damage about the warship assaulted by the missile,and realized the damage rank assessment quantitatively about the power of the missile.