山西省CO_2排放影响因素研究及情景分析

Influencing Factors of CO_2 Emission and Scenario Analysis in Shanxi Province

山西作为我国的能源大省,其碳排放强度更是持续位于全国最高水平,分析山西省CO_2排放影响因素,探究其发展模式,对于山西省的低碳发展意义重大.基于STIRPAT模型,将山西省能源CO_2排放的影响因素确定为人口、城镇化率、人均GDP、第二产业占GDP比重、能源强度.在岭回归拟合分析的基础上,利用灰色GM(1,1)模型对山西省CO_2排放驱动因素值进行预测,以提高能源CO_2排放预测的准确性,并结合情景分析方法,为山西省的CO_2减排设计了10种不同的发展情景.结果表明:(1)人口对山西省CO_2排放影响最大,其次是城镇化率和第二产业占GDP比重.(2)在当前经济发展阶段,能源强度和人均GDP等因素对山西省的CO_2排放影响不大,但能源强度对CO_2排放的抑制作用不可忽略.(3)山西省CO_2减排最佳的情景方案为适当控制人口数量和城镇化进程、加快产业结构的转型和技术的革新、降低第二产业占GDP比重和能源强度,并且大力推广新能源和清洁可再生能源的开发使用以优化能源消费结构.在该情景下,山西省2020年的CO_2排放量可以控制在5.16×108t.

As a richly energy province in China,CO2 emission intensity in Shanxi Province is sustained at the highest level in the country,the analysis on the influencing factors of CO2 emission and explore the development model of carbon emission reduction are of great significance to the development of low-carbon economy in Shanxi Province. Based on STIRPAT model,we had determined the influencing factors of energy CO2 emission in Shanxi Province,which include population,urbanization rate,per capita GDP,the secondary industry proportion of GDP and energy intensity. Based on the ridge regression fitting analysis,the grey GM（1,1） model was used to predict the driving factors of CO2 emission in Shanxi Province,so as to improve the accuracy of energy CO2 emission prediction,and designed 10 different development scenarios for CO2 reduction by combining a scenario analysis method. The results showed that：（1） The biggest impact factor on CO2 emission in Shanxi Province was the population growth,followed by the urbanization rate and the secondary industry proportion of GDP.（2） In the current stage of economic development,energy intensity and per capita GDP had little impact on the carbon emission in Shanxi Province,but the inhibition of energy intensity on CO2 emission could not be ignored.（3） The best scenario for CO2 emission reduction in Shanxi Province was appropriate control the population and urbanization process,accelerate the transformation of industrial structure and technological innovation,reduce the secondary industry proportion of GDP and energy intensity,and vigorously promote the development and utilization of new and clean renewable energy to optimize the energy consumption structure. Under the scenario,the emissions of CO2 could be controlled to 516 million tons in 2020,Shanxi Province.