基于天气指数的数据分析

Study on weather impact traffic index( WITI)

随着空中交通量的不断增长,空中交通延误已经成为了一个非常重要的亟待解决的问题.由于天气原因造成的空中交通延误占到了总延误的一半以上,所以分析天气对于空中交通的影响的研究具有很重要的意义.引入了天气影响交通指数(WITI)作为天气对于空中交通影响强度的衡量依据,通过对于指定区域的交通量和天气权值的数据收集进行WITI的计算.应用浦东机场一星期的天气数据和延误情况确定了风和能见度对于交通权值的影响比例并选取全国11个飞行区的重要机场,根据机场的地理位置及交通密度,对天气的影响模式进行了因子分析和聚类分析.通过因子分析,得到了四个能够代表全国天气情况的主因子,在此基础上进行聚类分析并选取了六种较为典型的天气及地区类别,使得在后续的空中交通管理过程中能够根据当天出现的相应的天气模式找到预先设定的应急方案,对于保障危险天气影响下的空中交通的安全和效率都具有重要的意义.

With the continuous increase of air traffic,air traffic delay has become a very important problem to be solved. Weather-related delay accounts for more than half of the total delay,it is of great significance to analyze the impact of weather on air traffic. In this paper,the Weather Impact Traffic Index（ WITI） was introduced as a measure of the intensity of weather impact on air traffic. WITI calculations are performed by collecting data on traffic volume and weather weights in designated areas. This paper used the weather data and delays of Pudong Airport for one week determines the proportion of wind and visibility impact on traffic weight. This paper selected the airports of 11 flight regions in China,and analyzed the factors affecting the weather according to the geographical location and traffic density of the airport. Through factor analysis,four main factors that can represent the national weather conditions are obtained,and cluster analysis was performed on this basis. Six typical weather and regional categories were selected by clustering,so that in the subsequent air traffic management process,a preset emergency plan can be found according to the corresponding weather patterns appearing on the day,and the air traffic under the influence of dangerous weather can be guaranteed. Both safety and efficiency were important.