新安江模型与水箱模型在柘溪流域适用性研究

Application of Xin'anjiang Model and Tank Model in Zhexi Basin

为提高柘溪流域洪水预报精度,充分合理利用洪水资源,缓解该流域下游的防洪压力,同时为水库防洪调度以及经济运行提供科学合理的决策依据,研究了集总式概念性水文模型新安江模型及水箱模型在该湿润流域的适用性。选取该流域2004~2015年实测数据,应用三目标MOSCDE算法分别优选三水源新安江模型以及水箱模型参数,从而对该流域划分的多个子流域单元进行了场次洪水模拟计算,并对比分析不同流域单元两种模型的模拟结果,探究不同模型结构在柘溪流域场次洪水模拟中的差异,分析总结这两种模型在该流域的适用性。结果表明:两种模型模拟效果比较接近,均可以达到《水文情报预报规范》规定的作业预报精度要求,且对于流域内的大洪水的模拟效果也比较理想。从洪量以及洪水过程方面分析,两个模型的模拟效果比较接近;从洪峰拟合角度分析,新安江模型比水箱模型更适合该流域。

In order to increase the accuracy of flood estimation, take full advantage of flood water resources, and relieve the flood pressure in the downstream of the Zhexi River, a suitable flood simulation model is needed to provide science and reasonable references for reservoir flood control. This paper studied the application of the Xin＇anjiang model and Tank model in this basin. The multi-objective optimal algorithm of MultiObjective Shuffled Complex Differential Evolution（MOSCDE） was used to calibrate the model parameters of these two hydrology models. The results indicate that the two models work well at rainfall-runoff process simulation, especially for high flow flood events. The results also show that the Xin＇anjiang model slightly outperforms than Tank model in flood peak as well they are similar to perform well at flood volume and the hydrograph of flood.