长沙市2013—2016年肺结核流行特征及时空聚集性分析

Epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal clustering analysis on pulmonary tuberculosis in Changsha from 2013 to 2016

目的:分析2013—2016年长沙市肺结核的流行特征和时空聚集性。方法:采用描述性分析和时空重排扫描统计分析长沙市2013—2016年肺结核报告病例数据。结果:2013—2016年长沙市累计报告肺结核患者17 721例,年均报告发病率为60.87/10万。病例多集中在15~<60岁年龄组,男性高于女性,且每年3~5月为报告高峰期。时空重排扫描统计共发现1个最可能聚集区和2个次要聚集区。其中,最可能聚集区覆盖浏阳市大部分地区和长沙县东北部,聚集时间为2013年10月1日—2014年2月28日;次要聚集区1包括开福区、长沙县的12个乡镇(街道),聚集时间为2016年12月1日—12月31日;次要聚集区2包括雨花区、天心区的4个乡镇(街道),聚集时间为2013年3月1日—9月30日。结论:2013—2016年长沙市肺结核病例存在明显的时空聚集区域,研究结果可为区域性肺结核防控策略的制订提供参考。

Objective： To analyze the epidemic characteristics and to explore pulmonary tuberculosis （PTB） in Changsha from 2013 to 2016 the spatiaI-temporal clusters of Methods： Descriptive analysis and space-time permutation scan statistic were used to reported PTB cases in Changsha from 2013 to 2016 analyze thegroups. The number of reported PTB cases reached peak from March to May in each year. The space-time permutation scan statistic identified one most likely cluster and two secondary clusters of PTB cases, q-he most likely cluster covered most areas of Liuyang City and the North-east part of Changsha County from October 1, 2013 to February 28, 2014. The first cluster occupied 12 towns （streets） in Kaifu District and Changsha County in December 2016. The second cluster included four towns （streets） in Yuhua District and Tianxin District from March 1 to September 30, in 2013. Conclusion： Between 2013 and 2016, significant space-time clusters of PTB cases were identified in Changsha. These findings could provide a guide for development of regional intervention strategies for PTB control.