重庆地区极端高温事件的模拟研究

The simulation of extreme high temperature over the Chongqing area

该文使用了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气环流模式IAP AGCM4.1和中尺度数值模式WRF3.2建立的耦合模式(IWRF),利用该耦合模式对1982—2014年重庆夏季气候进行了试验,将模拟结果与NCEP/DOE再分析资料驱动WRF3.2(NWRF)的模拟结果进行了比较,并利用观测资料评估了这2个试验对于重庆极端高温事件的模拟能力。结果表明:(1)2个试验均能较为合理地再现重庆夏季地表气温的气候态特征,IWRF的模拟偏差较大,尤其对于高海拔地区。它们对极端高温事件的模拟存在较大偏差,对日最高气温最大值(TXx),两者的距平分布相似,对暖昼指数(TX90p)和热浪持续指数(HWDI),IWRF的表现好于NWRF。在西部和东南部地区,2个试验对暖昼指数都具有一定的模拟能力;(2)NWRF能够模拟出极端高温指数的年际变化特征,而IWRF表现欠佳;(3)它们都不能模拟出TXx的变化趋势,但是,NWRF能够模拟出HWDI和TX90p的增加趋势。该文的结论可为重庆短期气候预测系统用于极端高温的预测提供一定参考。

This paper carried out the 1982—2014 Chongqing summer climate experiment was by using the coupled model of IAP AGCM4. 1 and WRF3. 2,and compare the NCEP/DOE reanalysis data driven WRF3. 2（NWRF） downscaling simulation results,and by using the observation data the evaluation of the two trials for simulation of extreme temperature events in Chongqing. The results showed that：（1） two tests are more reproduction of the climatological characteristics of Chongqing summer surface temperature reasonably,IWRF simulation of large deviations,especially for high altitude areas; their simulation of extreme temperature events there is a deviation,the maximum value of the daily maximum temperature（ TXx） anomaly distribution,similar to the two. On warm days index（ TX90 p） and heat wave duration index（ HWDI）,the performance of IWRF is better than NWRF; in the West and Southeast,two test has the ability to simulate the warm day index;（2） NWRF can simulate the extreme high temperature refers to the interannual variation of the number,and the poor performance of IWRF;（3）they can simulate the variation trend of TXx,however,NWRF can simulate the increasing trend of HWDI and TX90 p. The conclusion of this paper can provide some reference for the short-term climate forecast system of Chongqing for the prediction of extreme high temperature.