利率“双轨制”对我国货币政策价格型调控效应的动态考察

Dynamic analysis of the impacts of the“dual-track”system of interest rates on the efficiency of the price-based monetary policy of China

我国货币政策调控长期运行在管制利率和市场利率的"双轨制"道路上,影响着价格型货币政策的调控效应。通过构建MSIAH-VAR模型探索利率"双轨制"传导的体制转换特征,揭示货币政策价格型调控的动态效应变化。研究结论揭示,在2005年1月"体制转换"前,货币政策价格型调控通过管制利率渠道较之市场利率渠道效应显著;"体制转换"后,伴随利率市场化改革推进,市场利率渠道的调控效应显著增强,管制利率渠道的调控效应逐渐减弱。主要原因在于,"体制转换"前货币市场和信贷市场严重割裂,货币政策调控受到管制利率约束;"体制转换"后金融市场利率体系传导机制逐步完善,市场利率影响范围扩大力度增强,有利于宏观经济的平滑运行。为此,在"一带一路"国家经济战略进一步开放环境下,需要加快利率市场化改革,完善货币政策价格型调控模式的市场传导机制,尽量减少管制性措施对市场的扭曲,稳步推进国际化法治步伐以维护国家宏观经济的持续稳定发展。

The coexistence of the control-oriented interest rate and the market-oriented interest rate,a typical＂dual-track＂system of interest rates,has long been the characteristics of China＇s monetary policy,which has much impact on the efficiency of the price-based monetary policy.This paper constructs a MSIAH-VA model to analyze the characteristics of the institutional transformation of the existing monetary policy and interpret the dynamic effects of this＂dual-track＂system on the price-based monetary policy.The study has reached the following conclusions：before the institutional transformation in January 2005,the control-oriented interest rate transmission was more effective than the market-oriented interest rate transmission.After the institutional transformation,the effect of the marketoriented interest rate transmission enhanced and became more effective than the control-oriented interest rate transmission.The main reason is that the money market and the credit market were separated before the institutional transformation,while the monetary policy was under the direct administrative control.After the institutional transformation,the transmission mechanism of the interest rate system at the financial market has gradually improved,and the influence of the market-oriented interest rate has become greater,which is conducive to the smooth operation of macro-economy.In the context of further opening-up in the process of the implementation of＂The Belt and Road Initiative＂,China needs to speed up the reform of interest rate liberalization,perfect the transmission mechanism of the pricebased monetary policy,reduce bad impacts of the direct administrative control on the market mechanism,and gradually build an international legal environment in order to maintain the sustainable macroeconomic development of China.