基于五元联系数的单沟泥石流风险评价

Risk assessment of based on five-element connection number of debris flow

依据泥石流产生的条件建立评价指标体系,同时结合数学方法建立泥石流风险评价模型,充分考虑各个影响因素对泥石流的同一、差异、对立关系,从而克服泥石流影响因素的不确定性和复杂性。运用对数最小二乘法确定单沟泥石流灾害风险评价指标权重,通过一致性检验判断权重合理性;采用五元联系数对单沟泥石流灾害风险进行静态评价,引入多元联系数的偏联系数和集对势,对单沟泥石流灾害风险趋势进行动态分析;同时对项目所在地进行实际调查,将建立的评价模型与项目实际情况结合对中巴公路K1569+630附近的一处泥石流进行风险评价。

This paper establishes the evaluation index system based on the conditions of debris flow generated,and combined with mathematical methods to establish debris flow risk assessment model,which includes the full consideration on the various factors, such as the same,different,antagonistic relationship to landslides,to overcome the uncertainty and complexity of mudslides factors. Using the least squares method to determine the number of debris flow hazard assessment index weight risk weight,and the reasonableness of weight is judged by the consistency test. The index evaluation model of debris flow is establishhed by five-element connection number.Partial contact number and set pair potential concept are introduced in order to make dynamic analysis for debris flow risk. Meanwhile,a survey for the local project is made,and established model will be used to evaluate a debris flow near the International Karakoram Highway（ KKH） K1569 ＋ 630.