城镇养老保险缴费对就业影响的门槛效应研究

Threshold Effect of Urban Pension Insurance Contribution on Employment

养老保险缴费是企业成本的重要组成部分,对就业水平影响存在缴费率、就业结构、人力资本双重门槛。具体表现为:养老保险缴费率升高,对就业的抑制性显著增强;养老保险缴费对就业的影响随着就业结构变动而产生分化,随着私营企业就业增加,就业挤出效应逐渐提高;高养老保险缴费下企业会强化转移缴费成本的行为,增加低人力资本劳动者就业水平而抑制高人力资本劳动者就业水平。

Pension contribution is an important part of the enterprise cost, which has double barriers to employment level among contribution rate, employment structure and human capital. The concrete manifestation is as follows： The contribution rate of old-age insurance increases, which significantly increases the inhibitory effect on employment. The pension insurance contribution to employment changes with the change of employment structure. As the employment of private enterprises increases, the effect of employment crowding out gradually increases. Enterprises with high old-age insurance contributions will intensify the transfer of payment costs, increase the employment of low-paid human capital workers and inhibit the employment of highly-paid human capital workers.