中国物流集群的量化甄别与发育程度评价

Quantitative measurement and development evaluation of logistics clusters in China

基于交通运输、仓储与邮政业宏观统计数据,物流企业工商注册数据和物流POI数据,运用区位熵(LQ)、水平集聚区位熵(HCLQ)、物流就业密度(LED)和改进的物流企业占比系数(LEP)等指标,刻画了中国289个地级及以上城市的物流集群空间格局与演化过程,识别出不同类型物流集群的发育水平、类型和发展模式。结果表明:(1)物流集群主要集中于胡焕庸线东侧,集群形态由组团式转变为区块式,呈现广覆盖和高集聚特征;数量演化经历了"快速下降"和"稳中有变"两个阶段,集中程度和运行效率稳步提升。(2)21个成熟物流集群分布在16个省级行政单元中主要城市群的中心和次级中心城市,与政府物流规划衔接良好;43个新兴物流集群分布在21个省级行政单元,不同类型城市间分化显著。(3)物流集群在城市群尺度形成了由"主核—次核—一般节点"构成的多层级核心—边缘结构;在省级尺度形成了极核发展模式、网络化均衡发展模式,单核多点和多核多点的发展模式。

The logistics clusters are the result of concentration, scale and specialization of logistics activities, and their quantitative measurement and development evaluation provide an important foundation for improving the land use efficiency and achieving economies of scale. Taking 289 cities at prefecture-level and above as research objects, this paper collected macro statistics data of transport, postal and warehousing industry during 2000-2014, more than 290 thousand registered logistics enterprises and 170 thousand points of interest （POI） of logistics. The evolution process and spatial pattern of logistics clusters in China are explored with the methods of Location Quotient （LQ）, Horizontal Cluster Location Quotient （HCLQ）, Logistics Employment Density（LED） and modified Logistics Establishments＇ Participation （LEP）. The development level, type and development mode of different types of logistics clusters are quantified. Several important findings are derived from the study. （1） The logistics clusters are mainly located on the east side of the Hu Huanyong Line, and the accumulative pattern evolves from group to block structure, which features wide coverage and high concentration. The evolution of logistics clusters has experienced two stages of fast degradation and stable change. The development degree and efficiency of logistics clusters gradually increases. （2） 21 mature logistics clusters are distributed in the core and sub-cities of the main metropolitan areas of 16 provincial-level administrative zones, conforming to the government logistics and transport planning. 43 emerging logistics clusters are distributed in 21 provincial administrative zones, and different types of cities have huge disparities which highlight the differentiation of the market behaviors and government planning among them. （3） The logistics cluster presents a differentiated development mode with the change of scales. In urban agglomeration scale, the nested ＂center-periphery＂ structures with ＂main nucleus-secondary cores-general nodes＂ are clarified. The polar nuclear development, networked and balanced development, single core and multipoint, multi-core multipoint development patterns are formed in different provincial administrative zones.