地方人口结构变动对养老保险基金平衡的影响研究——以辽宁省为例

Research on the Impact of Local Population Structure Change on Pension Fund Balance in China: A Case Study of Liaoning Province

人口结构变动对养老保险基金平衡的影响是众多老龄化国家或地区正面临的共同问题。文章从理论和实证两个方面对人口结构与养老保险基金平衡关系进行研究,理论模型得出:人口老龄化水平与个人账户和社会统筹养老金收入负相关、与养老保险基金支出正相关,人口结构变动是养老保险基金失衡的直接原因。以理论模型为基础,辽宁省14个城市1999—2015年的面板数据为例,构建动态实证模型,结果发现:老年人口抚养比、城镇化水平和工资增长率的提高均会加重养老保险基金负担,造成社会养老保险基金失衡;经济增长和政府财政支持水平提高则有助于减轻养老保险基金支出压力,维持社会养老保险基金平衡。

Under the common pressure of population aging and economic downturn, the change of population structure in Liaoning Province has a greater impact on the balance of pension fund. This paper studies the pension fund balance from theoretical and empirical aspects. The theoretical model shows that the level of population aging is negatively related to personal accounts and social pension income, and is positively related to the expenditure of pension fund. Demographic changes are the direct cause of the unbalanced pension fund. Based on the theoretical model, the empirical analysis of the panel data of 14 cities in Liaoning Province from 1999 to 2015 has indicated that the increase of the elderly population, the urbanization level and the wage growth rate will increase the burden of the old-age insurance fund and cause social pension insurance fund imbalance and that economic growth and increased government financial support will help reduce the pressure on pension funds to maintain the balance of social pension insurance fund.