中国制造业能否摘取全球价值链“高悬的果实”

Can China’s Manufacturing Industry Extract the “High Hanging Fruit” of the Global Value Chain?

传统意义的“人口红利”式微，多指因劳动力年龄结构老龄化加重社会抚养比而导致的传统比较优势丧失，迫使摘取全球价值链“低垂的果实”难以为继。当前中国人口结构转型不仅体现为数量结构变化，也包括质量结构调整，并就此形成推动中国制造业攀升全球价值链的两种动力源：一是劳动力年龄结构优势丧失产生的“倒逼”效应，二是劳动力质量结构优化创造的“推进”动能。与单纯依托低成本劳动力数量优势形成的“要素驱动”不同，这种依托劳动力质量优势而形成的新动力机制本质上属于“创新驱动”，必将有利于中国制造业在全面摘取全球产业和技术“高悬的果实”中创造新的红利。在中国人口结构转型的关键时期，加快推进中国制造业在全球价值链分工体系中摘取“高悬的果实”，实现十九大报告提出的“促进我国产业迈向全球价值链中高端”战略目标，需要科学施策以确保作为构筑新型比较优势核心要素的“人才”转化为真正意义上的“红利”。

The weakening of traditional ＂demographic dividend＂ refers to the loss of the traditional comparative advantage caused by the ageing structure of the labor force that increase the social dependency ratio, forcing it unsustainable to extract the ＂low-lying fruit＂of the global value chain. At present, the transformation of China＇s demographic structure is not only reflected in the quantitative structure change, but also in the adjustment of quality structure. In this way, it forms two kinds of power sourc- es to promote the rise of manufacturing industry in the global value chain： First, the ＂forced＂ effect caused by the loss of the age structure advantage of the labor force. Second, the ＂promotion＂ kinetic energy created by the optimization of the labor quality structure is different from the ＂factor-driven＂ form which is relying solely on the quantitative advantage of low-cost labor, this new dynamic mechanism based on the superiority of labor quality is essentially ＂innovation-driven＂, which will certainly benefit China＇ s manufacturing industry in comprehensively extracting the ＂high hanging fruit＂ of global industry and technology. In the critical period of China＇s demographic restructuring, we will accelerate the promotion of China＇s manufacturing industry in the global value chain division of labor system to extract the ＂high hanging fruit＂, and realize the＂promoting China＇s industry to the high-end in the global value chain＂strategy proposed by the 19th National Congress. The goal requires scientific policy to ensure that the ＂talent＂, which acts as the core element of building a new comparative advantage, can transform into a true ＂dividend＂.