汇率变动、收入差距与经济增长——基于不同经济发展阶段的实证研究

Exchange Rate Changes, Income Gaps and Economic Growth——An Empirical Study based on Different Stages of Economic Development

汇率在各国经济增长过程中扮演着重要角色。本文选取92个经济体1997—2016年的样本数据，构建动态面板模型，并利用系统G删方法估计汇率变动对不同收入水平经济体经济增长的影响。结果表明：高收入和中高收入经济体汇率升值对经济增长起促进作用，中低收入和低收入经济体汇率升值对经济增长具有抑制作用；汇率变动通过外商直接投资和国际贸易两大间接渠道的影响效果会因收入水平不同而有所差异。同时，利用变量替换和TSLS方法进行稳健性检验，结果基本一致。最后得出政策启示，即任何经济体使用汇率作为宏观经济调控工具必须与经济发展阶段协调一致。

The exchange rate plays an important role in the process of economic growth in different countries. In this pa- per, sample data of 92 economies from 1997 to 2016 were selected to construct a dynamic panel model, and the system GMM method was used to estimate the impact of exchange rate changes on the economic growth of economies with different income lev- els. The results show that the exchange rate appreciation of high-income and middle-to-high income economies plays a role in promoting economic growth. The exchange rate appreciation of middle-to-low income and low-income economies has an inhibi- tory effect on economic growth. The effect of exchange rate changes through the two indirect channels of foreign direct investment and international trade will vary depending on the income level. At the same time, the robustness test was carried out by using the variable substitution and the TSLS method, and the results were basically the same. Finally, the policy enlightenment was drawn that any economy using the exchange rate as a tool for macroeconomic regulation must be coordinated with the stage of eco- nomic development.