多探空因子在绵阳雷暴潜势预报中的应用

Application of Multiple Sounding Factors in Potential Forecasting of Thunderstorm in Mianyang

在绵阳机场雷暴活动特征分析的基础上,结合探空资料,计算了绵阳雷暴发生和大气不稳定参数间的关系,得到K指数、抬升指数、沙氏指数、强天气威胁指数、对流不稳定能量、大气可降水量等探空因子,分析发现其值大小与雷暴的发生有较好的相关性。并且通过多探空因子在空间的分析表明,通过选取反映大气热力条件、水汽条件和层结稳定度的多探空因子,能更好地反映样本与雷暴发生的关联性。通过事件概率回归(REEP)方法,利用探空因子制作机场雷暴潜势预报,建立回归方程,以对雷暴的发生作客观定性的潜势预报。

Based on the analysis of the characteristics of the thunderstorm activity in Mianyang airport and sounding data,the relationship between the occurrence of thunderstorm and the atmospheric unstable parameters was calculated.The results showed that K index,LI index, SWEAT index, CAPE, Pwv had a good correlation with the occurrence of thunderstorm. The correlation between the samples and the occurrence of thunderstorm could be better reflected by multi-sounding factors that reflected the atmospheric thermal conditions, water vapor conditions and the stability of stratification. By regression estimation of event probabilities method, the potential prediction of airport thunderstorm was made by using the sounding factors, and the regression equation was established to make an objective and qualitative prediction of the occurrence of thunderstorm.