山东省旬温度预报产品的检验分析

Analysis and Evaluation About ten-days Temperature Forecast Products in Shandong Province

对2013—2014年EC-thin和T639模式山东省旬温度预报产品进行检验分析,结果表明:模式旬平均温度预报产品预报准确率高于旬最高、旬最低温度预报产品,模式阈值K为2℃的预报准确率均比K为1℃高30%左右。EC-thin模式较T639模式预报旬平均温度预报效果最好,平均误差最小。EC-thin模式预报旬最高温度偏低,预报旬最低温度偏高。对于旬平均温度预报,订正后的T639模式预报准确率在鲁中西部地区略优于EC-thin模式,其他区域均为EC-thin模式较优。EC-thin模式旬最低温度预报产品在鲁西北东部和半岛部分地区预报效果最好,在鲁西北西部和鲁西南部分地区预报效果最差。旬最高温度预报产品在鲁西北东部和鲁东南地区预报效果最好,鲁中西部和半岛东部地区预报效果最差。去除平均误差的订正方法对模式旬温度预报准确率的提高有一定效果,但不能明显改善。

The 2013～2014 EC-thin and T639 model of the temperature forecast products were analyzed and validated. The conclusions are as follows： the accuracy of ten-days average temperature is higher than the highest/lowest temperature forecast products. Correct rates are all 30% higher when threshold temperature is 2℃ than those when threshold temperature is 1℃. The forecast ability for ten-days average temperature of EC-thin model is better than the T639 model, and the relative error is less. The EC-thin model predicts that the ten-days maximum temperature is lower but the lowest temperature is higher. For the average temperature, the correct rate of T639 mode after error correction is slightly higher in than EC-thin model, only in the central of Shandong province. EC-thin model is better in the other areas. For the lowest temperature, the effect of EC-thin model is the best in the north of Shandong province, the worst in the western. For the highest temperature, the effect of EC-thin model is the best in the southeast and northwest of Shandong province, the worst in the eastern of Shandong Peninsula. After error correction, there is slightly improved for ten-days temperature forecast.