呼和浩特市2015年冬季空气质量指导预报检验分析

The testinganalysis of air quality guidance forecast duringwinter 2015 in Hohhot

文章对呼和浩特市2015年冬季(2015年11月—2016年1月)空气质量指导预报从单时次预报、逐日预报、过程预报3个方面进行了检验分析。检验分析表明:(1)单时次(08时)PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)等要素浓度预报偏差在可接受范围内,其中PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、CO、NO_2、O_3、SO_2冬季平均绝对误差分别为52.99、68.21、1.25、17.89、26.93、23.76ug·m^(-3),且PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)误差变化趋势较为一致,其相关系数为0.91;单时次(08时)AQI预报准确率为72.94%。(2)逐日AQI检验误差65.41,AQI预报准确率为64%。(3)空气质量污染过程预报较为滞后,其中单峰型污染过程波峰预报时间滞后48~60h;双峰型污染过程中第一个波峰预报时间滞后60h左右,而第二个波峰滞后1d左右;持续性污染过程中波峰预报时间滞后约36h。

The air quality guidance forecast during winter 2015 in Hohhot is tested and analyzed from the three aspects of single time forecast, daily forecast and process forecast. The results show that, （1） the single time concentration forecasterror at 8o’clockof some elements such as PM 2.5 and PM 10 is within acceptable limits, the mean absolute error of PM 2.5 , PM 10 , CO, NO 2, O 3,and SO 2 in winter is 52.99ug· m -3 , 68.21ug· m -3 , 1.25mg· m -3 , 17.89ug·m -3 , 26.93ug·m -3 and 23.76ug·m -3 respectively, the error trends of PM 2.5 and PM 10 are more consistent, the correlation coefficient is 0.91, the single time forecast accuracy of AQI at 8o’clock is 72.94%, （2） the error of the AQI daily forecast is 65.41, the forecast accuracy of AQI is 64%, （3） the air pollution process forecast is relatively lagging, the pollution peak forecast time of the single peak type lags two days or two and a half days or so, the first pollution peak forecast time of the double peak type lags two and a half days and the two lags one day or so, the pollution peak forecast time of persistent type lags one and a half days or so.