大股东股权质押与分析师盈余预测乐观倾向

Major Shareholders' Equity Pledge and Analyst Surplus Forecast Optimistic Tendency

论文从大股东股权质押与分析师乐观倾向之间的关系入手,利用盈余预测乐观性指标综合分析大股东股权质押这种融资行为对分析师盈余预测乐观倾向的影响。为了研究这一问题,我们用2013-2016年间发生股权质押的A股上市公司为样本进行实证研究,结果发现:大股东将股权质押给券商后,质权方分析师对标的股票倾向于发布不乐观的盈余预测;而有关联关系的质权方分析师对标的股票倾向于发布比较乐观的盈余预测。论文不仅对股权质押研究领域的有关文献进行了补充,也对分析师盈余预测行为的影响因素提供了新证据。

This paper starts with the relationship between the shareholder pledge of the major shareholder and the analyst＇s optimistic tendency, and uses the earnings forecast optimistic index to comprehensively analyze the impact of the financing behavior of the major shareholder equity pledge on the analyst＇s earnings forecast optimism. In order to study this problem, we conducted an empirical study using A-share listed companies with equity pledges in 2013-2016. It was found that alter the major shareholders pledge the shares to the brokers, the pledge party analysts tend to issue the stocks an optimistic earnings forecast; and a related pledge party analyst tends to issue a more optimistic earnings forecast for the underlying stock. This paper not only supplements the relevant literature in the field of equity pledge research, but also provides new evidence for the influencing factors of analysts＇ earnings prediction behavior.