农户供应风险对订单农业企业采购的影响

The Impact of Farmers' Supply Risk on the Purchase of Contract Farming Enterprises

考虑农户固定签约成本、农户生产服务成本和种植规模的约束,构建农产品供应与需求均不确定下,以农业企业期望利润最大为目标的农户选择及签约量决策模型。根据农户的供应成本、供应率和拥有土地规模的差异,设计了启发式求解算法。结果表明,在农户供应成本基本相同的情况下,农业企业应优先与供应率较高的农户签约;每个农户分配的签约量同时受农户的最大产量和供应率的影响。

Considering the constraints of the fixed contract cost,the cost of farmers＇ production service and the scale of planting,this study proposes a model of farmer selection and contracted quantity decision with the goal of maximizing the expected profit of agricultural enterprises under the uncertainty of supply and demand of agricultural products. A heuristic algorithm is designed according to the difference of farmers＇ supply cost,supply rate and land size. The results show that,under the same supply cost of farmers,the agricultural enterprises should give priority to the farmers with higher supply rate; the contracted quantity allocated is affected by both the maximum output and the supply rate of farmers.