世界能源新格局下中国的能源安全问题

Discussion of China's Energy Security in the New World Energy Pattern

2000年以来,世界能源行业出现了新变化,预计这种新变化将会导致世界能源格局的结构性调整。广义的能源安全包括能源供给能力、能源消费结构、能耗强度、能源消费带来的环境问题、能源贸易安全等。从上述问题着手,采用纵横向交叉论证的方式对与之相关的16项分类指标进行了论述。结果表明,中国在2040年之前可保持75%以上的能源自给率,有足够长时间对宏观能源战略做出调整;中国的能源消费结构中煤炭占比过高,由此带来的环境问题突出,特别是在温室气体排放和空气动力学当量直径小于2.5μm的颗粒物排放上形势严峻;中国在能源净进口的长期支付能力上不存在问题;中国对中东能源的依赖程度较大,要密切关注中东局势的发展,同时,要向能源进口的多元化方向努力。

Since 2000,many newchanges and problems have emerged in the world＇s energy industry,which means the world energy pattern is undergoing structural adjustment. The broad understanding of energy security mainly contains energy supply capacity energy consumption structure,energy consumption intensity,environmental issues caused by energy consumption,energy trade security and so on. The 16 classification indexs related to the above issues are discussed in this paper with the horizontal and longitudinal comparison of historical conceptions and world views. The results showthat energy self-sufficiency rate in China would keep over 75% before 2040,so there could be enough time to adjust macro energy strategy. Given that coal is dominant in China＇s energy consumption structure,it consequently leads to a series of environmental problems,especially greenhouse-gas emissions and PM2. 5 emissions have been serious. In the long run,there is no problem with the capability to pay the net import of energy in China. China＇s energy imports are mostly from the Middle East,so China should pay close attention to the situation in the Middle East. Meanwhile,China should focus on the diversification in energy import sources.