新一轮能源革命下中国电网发展趋势和定位分析

Research on Tendency and Positioning of Power Grid Development in the New Round Energy Revolution

新一轮能源革命下电网的发展将在电力系统传统功能基础上进一步扩展和丰富。在对新一轮能源革命内涵的深刻剖析基础上,借助电力系统优化规划模型对未来多元能源供应系统进行探索,预判未来能源发展格局。结合技术、经济、制度、环境等因素,识别影响电网发展的关键因素,通过构建电网功能定位模型,运用SWOT-AHP分析电网发展的内外部环境,构建相应的指标体系量化分析电网发展的战略定位,提出电网功能与形态转变的方向。结果表明,未来电网的电力传输功能向更大容量、更安全、更智能的方向发展,并呈现综合能源互联互补的高级形态,电网将为社会提供多元化、立体式、智能化服务。

The function of the power grid in the new round energy revolution will be significantly extended on the basis of the traditional power grid. Based on a deep understanding on the core of the new round energy revolution, a beneficial exploration on the future multi-energy supply system is conducted in this paper with the help of power system optimization planning model. We did a comprehensive analysis combining technical, economic, institutional and environmental factors. The SWOT-AHP technology is adopted to analyze the inner and outer environment of grid development and to facilitate the grid function enhancement. Numerical results suggest that file future power grid will develop towards larger capacity, safer and more intelligent ones, and the integration of multiple energy would also be a main feature.