基于LMDI模型的河南省碳排放影响因素及对策研究

Study on the Influence Factors and Countermeasures of Carbon Emission in Henan Province Based on LMDI Model.

近年来,随着经济的快速发展,气候变暖、环境污染等问题日益突出,并开始制约中国经济的可持续发展。河南省作为中原经济区的主体区域,正处于工业化中期阶段,能源消费总量继续增加,碳排放量也随之增长,这就使得加强对碳排放问题的研究成为当务之急。对河南省的经济发展水平及碳排放的现状进行分析,运用LMDI模型,将影响河南省碳排放的因素划分为增碳和减碳两大类,分析结果表明:人口规模、经济发展、工业化率为增碳影响因素;能源效率、能源结构为减碳影响因素。因此,应通过经济激励、优化产业结构、节能降耗、科技创新等政策工具控制河南省碳排放量。

In recent years,with the rapid economic development,climate warming,environmental pollution and other issues become increasingly prominent,and began to constrain China＇s sustainable economic development.Henan province,as the main principal part of the economic zone,is in the middle stage of industrialization where the total energy consumption will continue to increase and carbon emissions will increase as well. For those reasons,a high priority should be placed on strengthening research on carbon emissions. This paper analyzes the economic development level and carbon emission status of Henan province. Using the LMDI model,the factors affecting carbon emissions in Henan province are divided into two categories： carbon enhancement and carbon reduction. The results show that population size,economic development and industrialization rate are the influencing factors of the increasing carbon. Energy efficiency,energy structure are regarded as carbon reduction factors. This paper also puts forward some policy tools to control carbon emissions in Henan province such as economic incentive,industrial structure optimization,energy saving and consumption reduction,and scientific innovation.