基于WPI模型的水资源安全分析评价研究

Research on Water Resources Safety Analysis and Evaluation Based on WPI Model

通过WPI模型综合评价了区域水资源安全情况,以2006~2016年的实测数据为基础,建立了R(资源状况)、A(供水途径)、C(利用能力)、U(使用效率)和E(环境影响)5个方面,共20个指标的评价体系,基于信息熵理论计算了不同指标的权重和不同子系统的安全值得分情况,指出水资源安全值呈现逐年提高的趋势,趋势系数为2.833/a,供水途径(A)和利用能力(C)子系统水资源安全值呈现逐年升高的趋势,资源状况(R)和环境影响(E)子系统水资源安全值在2006~2016年间呈现出了较大的波动趋势,资源状况(R)整体上是处于中等和劣等水平,拉低了近几年的水资源安全值,因此资源状况是影响当地水资源安全情况的最主要因素。

Based on measured data from 2006 to 2016, this paper comprehensively evaluated regional water resources security by WPI model. The evaluation system was established with a total of 20 indicators including It （ resource status ） , A （ water supply, C （ utilization capacity-）, U （ use efficiency）, and E （ environmental impact） . Based on i^fformation entropy theory, the weights of different indicators and the safety- scores of different subsystems were calculated. The results showed that ： the value of water resources security- was increasing year by year, with a trend coefficient of 2. 833/a. The value of water resources safety- of A and C were increasing year by year, while that of R and E presented large fluctuations during 2006 to 2016, generally, R belonged to mediunl and low levels which pulled down the water resources security value. Therefore, the resource status is the most important factor affecting the security of local water resources.