基于季节调整模型的黄山旅客量发展状况分析

Analysis of Mount Huangshan's Traveller Number Based on Seasonal Adjustment Model

立足于黄山旅游业发展状况,运用EVIEWS中的X-12季节调整法和季节调整模型(SARIMA模型)对黄山旅游业发展现状进行客观分析,找出不足之处并提出相应对策.因受自然环境、人为因素等影响,黄山旅游业呈现明显的季节特征.将季节调整模型运用到黄山旅游业发展中,可以认清旅游市场的发展态势,区分出各景区的旺季和淡季并掌握其规律;结合黄山旅游发展实际,针对淡、旺季出现的问题进行逐一分析,制定相应的发展对策,旨在有效提高黄山旅游业发展水平.

This article is mainly based on the Huangshan tourism development condition, using the seasonal adjustment model（ SARIMA model） objectively to analyze the present situation of tourism development in Huangshan, and find out the deficiencies and puts forward corresponding countermeasures. Due to the natural environment, human factors and many other reasons, Huangshan tourism shows obvious seasonal characteristics. Applying the seasonal adjustment model to the development of Huangshan tourism, this paper can recognize the development trend of the tourism market, distinguish between the peak season and the off-season, combine the actual situation of Huangshan tourism, analyze the problems in the light and peak season, and formulate corresponding development countermeasures, aiming at improving the development level of Huangshan tourism effectively.