不同RCP情景下山东省小麦、玉米关键生育期的气候变化预估

Prediction of Climate Change in Key Growth Stages of Wheat and Maize in Shandong Province under Different RCP Scenarios

为了研究气候变化情况下小麦、玉米关键生育时期气候要素的变化趋势和对生产的适应性,选用基于BCC-CSM1-1气候系统模式下的3种不同浓度路径(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5)的模拟数据,研究了山东省冬小麦和夏玉米播种至出苗期和抽穗至灌浆期的最高温和降水量变化趋势。结果表明:在历史(1961—2005年)气候条件下,小麦季和玉米季关键生育期的最高温均呈增加趋势;在未来情景模式下,小麦季和玉米季播种至出苗期的最高温均在RCP2.6情景下呈下降趋势,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下呈增加趋势,且在RCP8.5情景下增加最快,气侯倾向率分别为0.56、0.62℃/10a;小麦季和玉米季抽穗至灌浆期的最高温在3种RCP情景下均存在不同程度的增加趋势,在RCP8.5情景下增加最快,气候倾向率分别为0.45、0.76℃/10a。在历史气候条件下,小麦季播种至出苗期的降水量呈上升趋势,抽穗至灌浆期的降水量呈下降趋势,而玉米季两关键生育期的降水量均呈下降趋势;在未来情景模式下,小麦季播种至出苗期的降水量在3种RCP情景下均呈下降趋势,在RCP4.5情景下下降最快,气候倾向率为-0.43 mm/10a;小麦季抽穗至灌浆期和玉米季播种至出苗期的降水量均呈增加趋势,在RCP8.5情景下增加最快,气候倾向率分别为1.53、4.62mm/10a;玉米季抽穗至灌浆期的降水量在RCP2.6和RCP8.5情景下呈增加趋势,在RCP4.5情景下呈减少趋势,在RCP2.6情景下降水量增加最快,气候倾向率为2.41 mm/10a。综合来看,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下玉米季关键生育时期最高温的增温速率均大于小麦季,而降水量的变化不显著,因此,在未来气候变化条件下,随着CO2浓度的增加,可通过调整播期和优化作物管理模式实现作物产量的提高。

In order to study the variation tendency of climatic factors and adaptability to production of wheat and maize during the critical growth period in the case of climate change,the simulation data of 3 different concentration paths（RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5） based on the BCC-CSM1-1 climate system model were selected,the variation trend of maximum temperature and precipitation of winter wheat and summer maize from sowing to seedling and heading to filling stages were studied.The results showed that the highest temperature of wheat and maize at critical growth stages was increased in the historical（1961-2005） climate condition.Under the future scenario models,the highest temperature of wheat and maize at sowing to seedling stage decreased in the RCP2.6 scenarios,but increased in RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios.The maximum in-crease of the highest temperature was in RCP8.5 and the climate inclination rate was 0.56 and 0.62℃/10 a,respectively.The highest temperature of winter wheat and summer maize from heading to filling stage increased in different degrees under the 3 RCP scenarios;under the RCP8.5 scenario,the highest temperature increased the largest,and the climate inclination rate was 0.45 and 0.76℃/10 a,respectively.In the historical climate conditions,the precipitation of wheat from sowing to seedling increased,while it decreased from heading to filling stage,however,the precipitation of maize decreased during the critical growth stages.Under the future scenario model,the precipitation of wheat from sowing to seedling stage in the 3 RCP scenario all decreased,and it declined the fastest in the RCP4.5 scenario with the climate inclination rate as-0.43 mm/10 a.The precipitation in the wheat season from heading to filling stage and in the maize season from sowing to seedling stage all increased,and both increased the fastest in the RCP8.5 situation with the climate inclination rate as1.53 and 4.62 mm/10 a.The precipitation of maize season from heading to filling stage showed an increasing trend under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios,but showed a decreasing trend under the RCP4.5 scenario.In the RCP2.6 scenario,the increase of precipitation was the fastest and the climate inclination rate was 2.41 mm/10 a.In a comprehensive view,the temperature increasing rate of maize was higher than that of wheat in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios during all the critical growth stages,and there was no significant changes in precipitation.Therefore,with the increase of CO2 concentration,the purpose of increasing yield could be achieved by adjusting sowing date and optimizing crop management mode under the conditions of climate change in the future.