静海区玉米作物暴雨致灾风险阈值研究

Precipitation Threshold for Maize Production Loss Caused by Rainstorm in Jinghai,Tianjin

根据天津市静海区2009—2017年5~9月的全区自动站数据和2013—2017年的各乡镇因暴雨受损的玉米减产率数据,采用统计方法对静海区暴雨灾害风险以及玉米因暴雨致灾风险进行评估和区划。研究发现,静海区暴雨灾害风险呈自西北向东南逐步增加的分布,静海区玉米作物暴雨致灾风险呈现出自西南向东北逐渐减少的分布。通过线性回归方法建立了玉米作物暴雨致灾风险12,h降水量阈值,量化不同暴雨灾害风险阈值所对应的玉米受灾情况,为制定有效的防灾减灾政策提供科学依据和研究思路。

Based on the data of all-region automatic stations from May to September,2009 to 2017 and the data of maize production loss rate caused by rainstorm from 2013 to 2017 in Jinghai,Tianjin,the research assesses the risk of rainstorm and maize production loss caused by rainstorm by statistical method.It shows that the probabilities of rainstorm in Jinghai gradually increase from northwest to southeast,and the probabilities of maize production loss caused by rainstorm in Jinghai gradually decrease from west to east.After that,the research calculates 12-hours precipitation thresholds,which quantify the loss of maize production loss caused by rainstorm corresponding to different thresholds,for maize production loss by linear regression method.The research provides scientific basis and more ideas for making plan of disaster prevention and mitigation.