广东省1981—2010年气候平均值的变化及其影响分析

Alterations of Climatological Averages Between 1981 and 2010 in Guangdong Province and Analysis of Their Effects

基于1951—2017年广东86个站点的常规日观测资料,统计分析了1981—2010年与1971—2000年全省年、季、月等时间尺度上气温、降水、日照气候平均值的差异,结果表明:(1)广东年、季、月平均气温均呈上升的特征,空间分布均有所差异。(2)广东年平均降水量减少11.6 mm,夏季增多,其余季度减少,月平均降水量变化较为明显的是4、5、6、9和10月,前汛期降水量减少10.6 mm,后汛期全省平均降水量增加了14.8 mm,龙舟水期间,全省平均降水量增多15.5 mm。年、季、月及前、后汛期、龙舟水变化均呈现空间分布不均的特征。(3)年平均日照时数减少,4季中除春季略增加外,其余3个季度均为减少,月平均日照时数除5月增多3.9 h外,其余月份均为减少,年、季、月日照时数变化的空间分布同样呈现出不均的特征。(4)新气候平均值的启用对广东省的气候预测、气候评价及年公报等基本业务均有明显的影响。

Based on the conventional daily observations from 86 sites in Guangdong for 1951 -2017, annual, seasonal and monthly differences in climatological averages of air temperature, rainfall and sunshine duration are statistically studied between the period 1981 -2010 and those of 1971 -2000 in order to determine the alterations of provincial climatological averages between 1981 and 2010 and their effects on meteorological operation since their routine application. The result is shown as follows. （1） The annual, seasonal and monthly mean temperature rose while their spatial distribution varied. （2） The annual mean rainfall dropped by 11.6 mm, with the amount increasing in summer but decreasing in the other seasons. The monthly mean rainfall changed dramatically in April, May, June, September and October, with the provincially averaged amount decreased by 10.6 mm in the April-May-June （AMJ） rainy season but increased by 14.8 mm in the July-August-September （JAS） one. During the ＂Dragon Boat Water＂ period （a time of relatively heavy rain across the fifth of May in the lunar calendar） , the provincially averaged rain amount increased by 15.5 ram. The variation was spatially uneven on the annual, seasonal and monthly scales as well as during the AMJ and JAS rainy seasons and the ＂Dragon Boat Water＂ period. （3） The annual duration of sunshine decreased. All but spring showed decreasing sunshine duration on the seasonal scale. Except for May which saw an increase of 3.9 h, the monthly sunshine duration also decreased. Again, the spatial distribution of the annual, seasonal and monthly variation of sunshine duration was uneven. （4） The use of new climatological averages does have obvious influence on the basic operation of the province in climate prediction, climate assessment and annual climate bulletin.