基于AEZ模型的产量动态预报研究

Research of Yield Dynamic Forecasting Based on AEZ Model

利用洛阳地区1981-2014年夏玉米产量资料、9个气象站点的逐日观测资料、农田0-50 cm土壤墒情资料,结合夏玉米生物学特性,采用农业生态区域法(AEZ模型),计算了夏玉米不同生长阶段的气候生产潜力,通过气候生产潜力与夏玉米产量的相关关系,建立以旬为尺度的夏玉米产量动态预报模型,并进行历史回代和试报检验。结果表明:气候生产潜力与夏玉米单产增减率呈显著正相关,气候生产潜力可以客观地反映夏玉米单产水平及其动态变化。构建的产量动态预报模型对1981-2010年单产历史回代检验的准确率为88.3%~90.7%,单产丰歉趋势回代检验准确率为65.5%~75.9%;对2011-2014年模型准确性试报检验,单产预报准确率为82.7%~87.5%,趋势预报准确率为50.0%~100.0%。

Based on the yield data of summer maize, daily observation data at 9 weather stations, and 0-50 cm soil moisture data of farmland in Luoyang from 1981 to 2014, combined with the biological characteristics of summer maize, the climatic potential productivity of summer maize in different growth stages were calculated by agricultural ecology zone method （AEZ model）. According to relationship be-tween climatic potential productivity and summer maize yield, the dynamic yield forecasting models by step of ten days were established, and history and forecast test had been done. The results were as fol-lows. There was a significant positive relationship between climatic potential productivity and gradient of summer maize unit yield. The climate potential productivity could respond the level of summer maize unit yield and its dynamic change. From 1981 to 2010, based on the dynamic yield forecasting models, the history test accuracy rates of actual unit yield were from 88. 3% to 90. 7% , and the accuracy rates of the bumper or poor harvest trend were from 65. 5% to 75. 9% . From 2011 to 2014, the forecast accuracy rates of unit yield based on the model were from 82. 7% to 87. 5%,and the trend forecast accuracy rates were from 50. 0% to 100. 0% .