近62年吐鲁番市气温变化趋势及周期性分析

Temperature Variance Tendency and Periodicity of Turpan in Resent 62 Years

根据1952—2013年吐鲁番国家基准气象站的气象资料,采用线性回归、Mann-Kendall检验方法、滑动t检验和Morlet复小波等方法分析吐鲁番市近62年气温趋势变化和周期变化。结果表明:吐鲁番市近62年来气温呈上升趋势,平均气温、年最高气温和年最低气温均呈上升趋势,上升速率分别为0.39℃·(10a)^(-1)、0.21℃·(10a)^(-1)和0.65℃·(10a)^(-1),且突变发生在1996年、2002年和1985年。最低气温的上升对年平均气温的升高贡献最大。吐鲁番市年平均气温和倾向率最大的年最低气温具有30年主周期。研究结果可为吐鲁番市应对气候变化和防灾减灾提供理论依据和参考。

Based on the climatic data of daily air temperature from Turpan meteorological station during 1952-2013,several methods such as linear regression,trend analysis,Mann-Kendall test,moving t test and Morlet wavelet analysis are used to analyze the characteristics of temperature change in Turpan City since the last 62 years. The results show that：during the latest 62 years in Turpan,the temperature showed a rising trend,The annual temperature 、annual maximum temperature and the minimum temperature also had increasing trends,the increasing rate were 0.39℃·（10a）^-1、0.21℃·（10a）^-1 and 0.65℃·（10a）^-1 respectively,the annual minimum temperature showed a more obvious effect on increasing of mean annual temperature.The annual average temperature and the minimum temperature who increasing rate are large have about 30 a main cycle. The results can provide theoretical basis and reference for addressing climate change and preventing meteorlogical disasters in Turpan.