中国新型城镇化的空间集聚效应与驱动机制——基于省级面板数据空间计量分析

The Spatial Agglomeration Effect and Driving Mechanism of New Urbanization in China——Based on the Spatial Econometric Analysis of Provincial Panel Data

新型城镇化的提出是中国城镇建设的重大战略性举措。本文基于中国2005~2016年30个省份的面板数据,建立了新型城镇化评价体系并进行水平测度,在此基础上运用空间分析方法对中国省域新型城镇化的空间集聚效应进行检验,并对中国新型城镇化的驱动机制进行了探讨。研究发现:(1)中国新型城镇化水平总体处于提升态势,但新型城镇化水平存在明显的空间差异,呈现"东高西低"的空间格局;(2)中国新型城镇化保持稳定的区域分化的分布现象,空间集聚效应显著;(3)本区域基础设施、技术进步、教育投入、贸易开放度和外商投资与新型城镇化都存在显著的正向影响关系;(4)邻近区域的基础设施、技术进步、人力资本对本地区的新型城镇化水平提升存在显著的负向溢出效应。

The new urbanization is a major strategy for China’s urban construction. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2016,the new urbanization evaluation system is established. On this basis,the spatial agglomeration effect of new urbanization is tested,and the driving mechanism of new urbanization is discussed. The conclusions are as follows：（1） The level of new urbanization in China is improving,but there is obvious spatial difference in the level of new urbanization;（2） China’s new urbanization maintains a stable regional distribution,and the spatial agglomeration effect is significant;（3）Infrastructure,technical progress,education investment,trade openness and foreign investment have a significant positive impact on the new urbanization in local area;（4） the infrastructure,technical progress and human capital in neighboring areas have significant negative spillover effects on new urbanization in local area.