长江经济带地区产业转移引力测度及其空间关系研究

Study on Gravity Measurement and Spatial Relationship of Industrial Transfer in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

产业转移作为协调区域经济发展的重要工具,对推动长江经济带发展、促进区域经济增长、缩小东中西部发展差距具有重要意义。本文以新经济地理学中的产业集聚理论为基础,通过主成分分析、空间计量和Monte-Carlo模拟等方法研究了长江经济带地区产业转移及长江经济带各地区联动协同发展。研究结果表明:长江经济带不同地区在承接产业转移吸引力和离散力的组成上差异较大,其中下游地区的吸引力来源主要是地区发展潜力和运输能力,劳动供给、货币外部性和市场潜力则主要影响中上游地区;在地区承接产业转移离散力上,下游地区主要受到潜在生活成本和外部不经济的影响,中上游地区主要受到农业土地依赖和劳动成本的影响;在空间上,长江经济带自东向西在承接产业转移的吸引力和离散力上均呈现"U"形,合力则呈现东高西低的"梯度",这一空间关系显著,且结果稳健。

Based on NEG,this paper studies the problem of industrial transfer in the Yangtze River economic zone and the synergistic development of the Yangtze River economic belt through principal component analysis,spatial econometrics and Monte-Carlo simulation. The results show that there are significant differences in the composition of attractiveness and dispersion of the industrial transfer in different regions of the Yangtze River economic belt. The attractiveness of the downstream regions is mainly due to economic and technological level and transport capacity. And in the region of middle and upper,the attractiveness is mainly due to region labor supply,currency externalities and market potential. In the discrete power of undertaking the industrial transfer,the downstream mainly due to the potential cost of living and external diseconomies. And the upper reaches of the region mainly due to agricultural land dependence and labor costs. In the space,the Yangtze River economic belt from the east to the west in undertaking the attractiveness and dispersion of industrial transfer shows a ＂U＂ shape,and combined force shows ＂gradient＂. This relationship of space is significant and the results are robust.