一带一路视域下三大产业发展不平衡性对物流业影响的分析

Analyses of the Impact on the Logistics Industry of Unbalanced Development of the Three Major Industries Under the Belt and Road

探索三大产业发展不平衡对物流业的影响,对促进"一带一路"建设,发展物流业具有重要意义。本文研究了三大产业不平衡发展的现状与作用机理;运用全国数据和省际面板数据,构建了VAR模型和省际面板模型并进行数理分析,得出结论:从全国数据看,三大产业与物流业之间是一个相辅相成的耦合系统。三大产业的不平衡性对物流业影响不尽相同;以"一带一路"为背景的分析更具有现实意义。从省际面板数据看,第一产业对物流业弹性系数最大的是海南,说明第一产业对物流发展的重要性;第二产业系数最大的是甘肃,说明地理位置及产品属性的重要性;第三产业系数最大的是云南和贵州,说明第三产业的发展会带动物流业发展。

Exploring the influence of unbalance on logistics industry development of the three major industries to promote the construction of ＂the Belt and Road＂,has important significance to the development of the logistics industry. The unbalanced development status and mechanism of the three industries are studied. We use the national data and provincial panel data to constiuct the VAR model and the provincial panel data model,and the conclusion is drawn from the mathematical analysis of the mutual influence. From the national panel data,the three industries and logistics industry are complementary systems. The effect of the unbalance of the three major industries of the logistics industry is not the same; the analysis has more significance under ＂the Belt and Road＂. From the provincial panel data,the biggest elasticity of the logistics industry in the first industry is Hainan,which explains the importance of the primary industry on the development of logistics. The most important factor of the second industry is Gansu,which shows the importance of geographical location and product attributes. The largest factor of the third industry is Yunnan and Guizhou,it shows that the development of the third industry will bring the development of logistics industry.