碳交易机制下风电项目投资决策研究

Research on investment decision of wind power project under carbon trading scheme

研究碳交易机制对风电项目投资决策的影响,不仅有助于风电项目投资的科学决策,而且对于国家宏观政策的调整具有重要意义。考虑碳交易价格、市场电价等不确定因素,构造风电项目投资的四叉树期权模型,分析碳交易价格及碳价格波动率对风电项目投资价值的影响。算例分析表明:在处理不确定性时,实物期权方法优于传统的净现值法;碳价格不确定性显著增加了风电项目的投资价值,然而,当前的碳交易市场不足以单独支撑风电投资;碳交易和电力市场的有效组合将显著促进风电投资。上述结论对风电项目投资提供了理论依据和决策参考。

The study on investment decision of wind power project under carbon trading scheme not only contributes to the scientific decision of wind power project,but also is of great significance to the macro-policy adjustments. Based on the theory of real options,this paper establishes a quadrinomial model that can be used to evaluate the investment decision of wind power projects under carbon emission trading scheme with uncertainties in carbon price,electricity price and investment cost incorporated. The results indicate that the real options approach has an advantage over the traditional net present value method when handling uncertainty. Carbon emission trading has significant and positive effects on the investment of the wind power projects; however,it cannot support the wind power project investment on its own. The trade-off between carbon emission trading and electricity market will significantly promote wind power investment. The results obtained from this study provide a theoretical foundation for decision-making of the wind power project investment and related policymaking.