论我国经济改革动力学

On the Dynamics of China's Economic Reform

改革开放40年来,我国经济发展取得了举世瞩目的历史性成就。理解我国经济的高速增长,需要从体制改革释放的动力上去寻找原因。40年来我国经济持续高速增长的动力机制是在不断推进的市场化改革中形成了一个开放竞争系统。这个系统包括了地方政府之间的竞争、企业竞争以及两种竞争之间的一致性大于离心力的取向。开放竞争系统的形成是从分权改革开始的。80年代以来的分权化改革是与市场化改革、对外开放以及经济性分权同步推进的,这几个方面的协调推进推动了开放竞争系统的形成。开放竞争系统也是随着经济环境的变化而不断改变着竞争重点与方式的。判断经济环境的变化,关键在于找出供求双方中任何一方变化导致的原有平衡被打破与新平衡重建的节点。40年来,我国经济环境发生了两次明显的节点性变化,这两次节点性变化把我国经济环境分为三个阶段,即卖方市场阶段、买方市场阶段以及创新发展阶段。在不同阶段,开放竞争系统所表现出来的特点是不一样的。随着阶段性变化,这些特点也发生着改变。

Over the past 40 years of the reform and opening-up,the development of China's economy has attained remarkable historic achievements. To understand the rapid growth of China's economy,we need to look for the impetus unleashed by the system reform. During the past 40 years,China has sustained rapid economic growth by virtue of the formation of an open competition system in the ongoing market-oriented reform. This system includes the competition among local governments,the competition among enterprises,and the tendency that the consistency of the two kinds of competition is greater than the centrifugal force. The formation of the open competition system began with the decentralization reform. However,compared with the previous attempts,the decentralization reform since the 1980 s has been advancing synchronously with the market-oriented reform,opening up to the outside world and economic decentralization,the coordinated promotion of which has promoted the formation of the open competition system. The open competition system is also evolving with the changes of economic environment. To judge the changes of economic environment,the key is to find out the node where the original balance is broken and the new balance is rebuilt due to the change of either side with respect to supply and demand. In the past 40 years,China's economic environment has undergone two significant nodal changes,which divide China's economic environment into three stages: seller's market stage,buyer's market stage and innovation development stage. The characteristics of the open competition system are different at different stages,as they change with the changes in stages.