无奈的选择:福特政府对“板门店事件”的应对

A Helpless Choice: The Response of Ford Administration to Panmunjom Incident

1976年"板门店事件"发生后,福特政府迅速做出反应。专门负责应对突发危机的华盛顿特别行动小组召开两次会议,其决策者在应对危机时面临着尴尬的局面:一方面需要采取报复性军事行动教训对手,在盟友中挽回因越战失败而失去的威信并维护超级大国的荣誉;另一方面不能冒局势升级带来的重大风险,以致在亚洲再次陷入类似越战的战争泥潭。无奈之下,经会议激烈争论后,美国决定在外交上主要和韩国进行协商,在军事上放弃报复性打击行动,而选择通过调遣强大的兵力来炫耀武力;尤其实施强行砍树的"保罗·班扬行动",希冀以此间接实现具有矛盾性的目标;而政治解决危机更是其选择非军事报复行动的必然组成部分。在应对危机的过程中,华盛顿决策层始终存在着强烈的军事报复心理。然而,美国总统大选、越战失败的教训、复杂的美苏冷战国际形势、东北亚区域局势以及自尼克松任总统以来的对朝政策等多重因素,严重制约着福特政府的对朝军事报复行为,使其只能做无奈的选择。

After the Panmunjom incident in 1976,the Ford administration replied quickly. Washington Special Action Group that is responsible for dealing with sudden crises held two meetings. Its decision makers were facing an awkward situation when dealing with the crisis. On the one hand,they needed to take retaliatory military actions to teach their opponents a lesson,restore the prestige lost due to the failure of the Vietnam War among their allies and safeguard the honour of the superpower. On the other hand,they could not risk escalating the tension as they may be plunged into a war similar to the Vietnam War in Asia. In desperation,after a heated debate at the meeting,the United States decided to mainly negotiate with ROK in diplomacy and gave up retaliatory attacks in military affairs. Instead,it chose to show off its force by deploying strong troops,especially the Operation Paul Bunyan of forcibly cutting down trees,hoping to indirectly achieve the contradictory goals. The political solution to the crisis was an inevitable part of its choice of non-military retaliation. In the process of coping with the crisis,Washington's decision-making level always had a strong military revenge mentality. However,many factors,such as the U.S. presidential election,the failure of Vietnam War,the complicated US-Soviet cold war international situation,the Northeast Asian regional situation and the policy towards DPRK since Nixon became president,had seriously restricted Ford administration's military retaliation against DPRK,making it helpless to choose.