产业集群的城镇化效应——基于山东半岛蓝色经济区的实证研究

Urbanization Effect of Industrial Cluster: An Eempirical Study Based on Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone

文章从产业集群与城镇化互动关系出发,选择山东半岛蓝色经济区作为研究案例区,重点分析了产业集群的城镇化效应,并运用SVAR模型探测了2000—2015年期间产业集群的发展规模和创新能力对城镇化水平和城镇化质量的响应轨迹。结果显示:产业集群与城镇化之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,短期内二者呈负向反馈,但短暂波动后产业集群会不断调整,逐渐与城镇化相适应;与城镇化质量相比,产业集群发展规模和创新能力对城镇化水平的影响更为显著;整体来看,山东半岛蓝色经济区内的产业集群与城镇化之间的有序性不高,产业集群对城镇化的贡献率较小,还有较大的提升空间。

Starting from the interactive relationship between industrial cluster and urbanization and choosing Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone as a case study,this paper focuses on the urbanization effect of industrial cluster and by adopting SVAR model,detects the response trajectory of the development scale and innovation capability of industrial cluster to the urbanization level and urbanization quality during 2000 and 2015. The results show that there exists a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between industrial clusters and urbanization with a short term negative feedback,but after a short fluctuation,industrial clusters continue to adjust and gradually adapt to urbanization; compared with urbanization quality, the effect of industrial cluster ＇ s development scale and innovation capability on urbanization level is more significant; and that as a whole,the orderliness between industrial clusters and urbanization in Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone is not high,the contribution rate of industrial clusters to urbanization is small,and there is more room for promotion.