基于阴阳历叠加的中长期天气预报方法检验

Test of Medium and Long Term Weather Forecast Method Based on Superposition of Lunar and Solar Calendar

针对重庆市永川地区汛期(5～9月)降雨与春秋冬季降温天气过程,采用永川地区1957-2016年的历史资料,用阴阳历叠加的方法对2017年天气过程进行预报,同时根据2017年的天气实况进行检验,结果表明:(1)预报2017年汛期降雨过程30次,其中暴雨过程13次;预报春季降温4次,秋季降温6次,冬季降温5次。(2)经实况检验,汛期实况暴雨发生6次,5次预报准确,1次预报量级偏低,对小雨的预报量级普遍偏高;实况降温10次,预报准确6次,漏报4次。阴阳历叠加的中长期预报方法大体上能反映主要的降雨、降温过程,具有一定的可信度,可为提前做好防灾减灾工作提供一定的参考,但存在一定的空报、漏报、错报率,实际工作中需要结合短临预报等其他预报手段进行修正,能得到更好的预报效果。

Based on the historical data of Yongchuan District of Chongqing from 1957-2016, the weather of Yongchuan District in 2017 is forecasted including the rainfall in wet season （May to Sept.） and the temperature-fall times in spring, autumn and winter. Meanwhile, the results of the forecasts are compared with the actual weather of the district in 2017. The results show that the forecasting method can reflect the main rainfall and temperature-fall period in general, with certain credibility, can provide some reference for disaster and reduction prevention in advance. However, there are some false rates, missing rates and misstatement rates, therefore. in practical work, we need modify the forecasting results by combining short-term forecasting and other forecasting methods in order to acquire the better prediction results.