贵州境内高铁沿线气象灾害特征及关键服务期探讨

Study on the characteristics and critical service period of meteorological disasters along the High-Speed railway in Guizhou

该文应用层次分析法和专家咨询法,建立贵州境内高铁沿线风险评价指标体系,确定影响贵州境内高铁的主要气象灾害为暴雨,其次为雷暴、大风、凝冻、积雪等。利用贵州境内高铁沿线23个气象站1961—2015年55 a气象观测资料,分析贵州境内高铁沿线主要气象灾害的气候特征,表明暴雨日数呈上升趋势,年平均暴雨日数为2~4.9 d,沪昆高铁西段是暴雨中心;雷暴日数呈下降趋势,年平均雷暴日数为43.6~71.1 d,沪昆高铁西段是雷暴频发区;大风日数呈显著下降趋势,沪昆高铁西段出现大风的频率最高,年平均大风日数大于20 d,其余路段不足5 d;凝冻日数总体呈下降趋势,沪昆高铁和贵广高铁均不在重凝冻区,但沪昆高铁普安到晴隆段和麻江段年平均凝冻日数较多为10~15 d;积雪日数总体呈现波动趋势,其线性增长率变化不大,沪昆高铁麻江段及三穗到铜仁南段积雪日数在5~7 d,其余路段不足5 d。确定高铁沿线主要气象灾害的关键服务期,利用月平均气象灾害日数,分析各路段气象灾害对高铁影响的关键服务期及重点路段,对高铁气象服务具有参考意义。

Using the AHP and Delphi method, the risk evaluation index system of high - speed railway in Guizhou was established. To determine the effects of main meteorological disasters along the high - speed railway in Guizhou is rainstorms, followed by thunderstorms, gale, freezing, snow, etc. , the data of 23 meteorological stations along the high -speed railway in Guizhou from 1961 to 2015, was used to analyze the climatic characteristics of the main meteorological disasters. The results show that the number of rainstorm days is on the rise, the average annual rainstorm days is 2 -4.9 d, and the west section of Shanghai - Kunming high - speed railway is the rainstorm center. The number of thunderstorms declined, and the annual average thunderstorm days is 43.6 -71.1 d, and the west section of Shanghai - Kunming high - speed railway is a frequent thunderstorm area. The number of gale days shows a signifieant decline. The frequency of gale is the highest in the west section of Shanghai - Kun- ruing high - speed railway, the average annual gale days is more than 20 d, and the other sections is less than 5 d. The frozen days showed a decreasing trend,Although the Shanghai - Kunming and Guiguang - Guangzhou high - speed railway in C.uizhou are not heavy frozen zone, from Pulan to Qinglong and Majiang section of Shanghai - Kun- ruing high - speed railway, the average annual freezing days is 10 - 15 d. The annual average day of snow is gener- ally fluctuating, and its linear growth rate has little change, the average annual freezing days in Majiang and Sansui to Tongren is 5 -7 d, and the other sections is less than 5 d. Determining the key service period of major meteoro- logical disasters along the high speed rail, and using the means d monthly meteorological disaster data to analyze the key service period and key section of the impact of meteorological disasters, It is of great significance to the meteorologieal service of the high -speed railway.