中国人口的离婚高企与婚姻稳定性下降解析

High Divorce Rate and Decline of Marital Stability in China

利用近20年的客观数据,对中国现实离婚状况的规律性特征进行有效分析,结果显示:中国婚姻稳定性日趋下降,离婚率持续攀升;离婚人口占结婚人口的比重不断扩大,婚姻稳定性逐渐下降;离婚人口积极争取再婚的机会,再婚人口不断增多;高离婚率的年龄段逐渐向35—49岁集中;婚姻纠纷依然尖锐,近一半的离婚人口倾向于通过司法途径来解决离婚争议。中国离婚率高低差异的区位特征表明:乡村人口离婚率远低于镇,而镇的离婚率又远低于城市,城乡之间的核心—外围—边缘特征显著;离婚率的省际差异大,区域性特征明显。相关分析表明,离婚率由多种因素复合而成,其中,与抚养负担弱化以及家庭小型化存在显著负相关关系。并且,改革开放以来,中国正在经历传统"集体化社会"向"个体化社会"转变的过程。高离婚率的出现,与"集体化社会"向"个体化社会"的转变密切相关。

Using objective data from the recent 20 years,this paper made an effective study of the marital status in china; the result indicated that the marital stability is decreasing and the divorce rate is increasing：the proportion of divorced population from the married population is expanding constantly; the number of remarried people are growing; people of 35-49 years old are becoming the main age group of the high divorce rate; marital disputes are still intense and nearly half of the divorcing people tend to solve their controversies by judicial means. In addition,the regional feature of divorce reveals that divorce rate in rural areas is far below that of towns,and that of towns far below that of large cities; there are also conspicuous differences among provinces. The correlation analysis showed that the divorce rate was affected by multiple factors,among which the reduced dependency burden and the family size make a significant negative correlation.Moreover,the emergence of high divorce rate is closely related to the current transformation from a＂collective society＂to a more＂individualized society＂.