基于统计学方法的HYCOM海洋预报结果评价

Evaluation of HYCOM Ocean Forecasting Fields Based on Statistical Method

利用2015年冬季和2016年夏季东中国海现场温度、盐度观测资料,评价了一个海洋资料同化及预报系统HYCOM初始场的精度和预报技巧.结果表明这一预报系统初始场的精度及预报技巧在冬、夏季有明显的差异.在冬季,模式温度和观测温度之间无明显偏差.在夏季,盐度初始场的均方根误差高达3.41psu,温度初始场的均方根误差高达7.22℃.就预报技巧而言,预报系统在冬季对温度有一定的预报技巧,与冬季相比,预报系统对温度及盐度的预报技巧在夏季明显降低.本研究的结果有利于人们更好地使用海洋预报,为研发下一代中国近海海洋预报系统提供借鉴.

In this study,we evaluated the accuracy of initial fields and the prediction skill of an ocean data assimilation and forecasting system HYCOM using in situ temperature and salinity observations during the winter of 2015 and the summer of 2016.The results show that the accuracy of the initial fields and the prediction skill of the forecasting system are obviously different in winter and summer.In winter,there is no obvious bias between the model temperature and the observation.In summer,the root mean square error of the salinity field of the forecasting system is as high as 3.41 psu.The root mean square error of temperature is as high as 7.22℃.As for prediction skill,this forecasting system has some prediction skills for temperature in winter.The prediction skill of temperature and salinity of this forecasting system is reduced in summer.The results of our study would help to better understand the accuracy of the ocean forecasting system over the East China Sea and could contribute to the design and implementation of the next generation Chinese ocean forecasting system.