中国高碳产业异质性及其脱钩分析

On Heterogeneity and Decoupling of High-Carbon Industries in China

国内外学者有关产业转型与碳排放的研究,目前主要围绕二者的相互影响及脱钩分析展开,多是基于DEA或EKC模型分析影响具体某一行业如钢铁业或建筑业碳排放的因素等,对于行业异质性的研究相对较少。本文基于生态文明建设的背景,分析我国碳排放的行业异质性,进而提出高碳产业的转型路径及针对性措施。首先,以47个产业2006—2015年的数据作为样本,通过IPCC方法测度各个行业的碳排放量,并进行异质性分析。然后,基于脱钩理论,以国家统计年鉴行业分类中的工业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业,批发、零售业和住宿、餐饮业以及建筑业等四大类产业的数据为代表,进行重点测度。研究结果表明:不同产业碳排放量及其脱钩状态具有明显差异,其中,脱钩状态最好的为工业,除了在2009年和2013年分别出现扩张连接和扩张负脱钩之外,其他时间脱钩效果都较好;工业在2015年第一次表现出强脱钩状态,说明此前对工业的管控起到了良好的作用;交通业、建筑业及批发零售业等,脱钩状态不理想,多次表现出扩张状态,说明这些行业发展对环境产生了较大的压力。同时,我国部分行业碳排放量受市场影响而波动剧烈,企业无法在现有市场中及时获取有效信息以控制产能。我国政府应加强相应市场的建设,提高市场透明度,降低信息不对称。我国推动节能减排工作应当重点关注交通业与建筑业等,积极发展低碳交通,推进清洁能源使用,严格把关建筑材料、生产过程,有效处理高污染材料及建筑废弃物,推行清洁生产。

At present,researches on industrial transformation and carbon emissions both at home and abroad mainly focus on the mutual effect and decoupling analysis of the two,and many of them,based on the DEA or EKC model,analyze the factors affecting the carbon emissions of specific industries such as steel or construction industry;while studies on industry heterogeneity are relatively few.This paper analyzes the heterogeneity of carbon-burning industries in China under the background of ecological civilization construction,and proposes a transition path of high-carbon industries and some corresponding measures.First of all,the paper,by taking the data of 47 industries from 2006 to 2015 as samples,measures the carbon emissions of various industries through the IPCC method and analyzes their heterogeneity.Then,based on decoupling theory,it measures the data of four major industries in China provided by the State Statistical Yearbook,namely the data of industry and wholesale,retail,accommodation,catering,construction,transportation,storage and post.The results show that there exist significant differences in carbon emissions and decoupling state among various industries.The industry has the best decoupling state despite the expansion connection and expansion negative decoupling in 2009 and 2013 respectively.For the first time in 2015,strong decoupling effect appeared in industry,showing that previous control on industry has played an active role;by contrast,the transportation,construction and the wholesale,retail industries,which have shown expansion many times,are in the unsatisfactory state of decoupling,showing that their development has exerted a great pressure on the environment.At the same time,the carbon emissions of some industries in China are volatile as a result of market fluctuation and companies have no access to valid information from markets to control production capacity.Chinese government should improve market transparency and reduce information asymmetry.Special attention should be paid to the transportation and construction industries in building material selection,productive process and dealing withhigh-pollutingmaterialsandbuilding wastes,and promoting low-carbon transporation.