美国乙烷产量增加为乙烯产业链发展带来机遇

USA Ethane Gives Opportunities for Development of Ethylene Industrial Chain

近年,美国页岩革命使乙烷产量大幅增加。由于乙烷制乙烯工艺相对石脑油制乙烯具有更好的经济性,在美国及世界范围内(尤其是欧洲),以乙烷为原料的乙烯装置建设呈现蓬勃发展的高潮,为全球聚乙烯等下游产业链的发展带来了机遇,也为中国的乙烷制乙烯及相关产品提供了发展潜力。预计未来5年主要进口地区的聚乙烯价格将下降5%~10%,全球乙烷原料和乙烯产业链产品的贸易格局也将发生较大变化,低成本的北美聚乙烯将取代部分成本较高的日、韩等国家和地区的产品进入中国市场。文章还讨论了乙烷裂解制乙烯项目潜在的风险,如进口乙烷的物流和未来乙烷价格上升等问题。

In recent years, ethane production has been sharply increased as the result of shale revolution in USA. Since ethylene from ethane pyrolysis is more economical than naphtha process, the construction boom of new ethane crackers in USA and even worldwide（especially in Europe） has resulted in the development of global PE and its product chain and provided developmental potential for China ethane crackers and the related industrial chain. We predict that the PE price in major import regions will decline about 5%~10% in the next 5 years, the trade pattern of global ethane feedstock and ethylene chain products will have a big change and lower-cost USA PE will enter China market in place of products from high-cost producing countries and regions such as Japan, South Korea. This paper has also given high concern about the risks with ethane cracker such as logistics of ethane import and rise in ethane price in the future.