国内合成橡胶市场回顾及未来展望

Review and Prospect for Domestic Synthetic Rubber Market

过去几年国内合成橡胶能力增速大幅减缓,需求回升,装置利用率不断提高。但进口量也在持续回升,供应过剩与大量进口之间的结构矛盾仍较突出。2017年橡胶及原料价格大幅上涨,合成橡胶盈利能力略有好转。2018年汽车增长乏力拖累橡胶需求,供应快速增加,合成橡胶行业利润水平不及上年。从近年发展趋势看,东南亚已成为全球合成橡胶高端品种新的生产地区,中东、俄罗斯也在加快合成橡胶产能布局,中国未来合成橡胶生产成本有望大幅降低;从需求趋势看,合成橡胶正向高端化、定制化方向发展,同时热塑性弹性体对部分传统硫化橡胶的替代也成为发展趋势。

In the past few years, domestic synthetic rubber capacity growth rate sharply slowed down, demand rose again and capacity utilization rate continuously improved. But import volume also continuously rose again, and the structural contradiction between oversupply and massive import was prominent. In 2017, the prices of rubber and its raw materials sharply rose, and synthetic rubber profitability slightly recovered. In 2018, weak auto growth drags rubber demand, but supply increases rapidly, so the profit level of synthetic rubber industry cannot reach to that of last year. Looking from development trends in recent years, Southeast Asia has become new producing region for global synthetic rubber high-end varieties, the Middle East and Russia are accelerating their synthetic rubber capacity layout, and China＇s future synthetic rubber production cost may be sharply reduced. Looking from demand trends, synthetic rubber is developing towards the orientation of high-end and customization, and meanwhile TPE＇s replacement of some traditional vulcanized rubber is also one of development trends.