政策协同对中国国家自主贡献目标的影响评估

The Evaluation of Role of Policy Synergies in Achieving China's INDC Targets

中国国家自主贡献方案中设定了到2030年碳排放达峰和非化石能源消费比重达到20%的目标,而政策组合对实现这些目标至关重要。本文通过发展我国能源-经济-环境系统集成模型,分析了国家提出的2030年碳排放达峰和非化石能源发展目标两者间的潜在交互关系,重点研究碳定价和能源补贴政策的组合优化对两个目标如期达成的影响机制,并考察政策选择对相应政策成本的影响。研究发现,对不同的目标而言,碳定价和非化石能源补贴政策的作用效果存在显著差异;非化石能源比例和碳排放达峰两大目标的实现过程可能是冲突或协同的,依赖于政策组合的优化和选择;政策选择显著影响达成既定INDC目标的政策成本,引入适度补贴的组合政策可以大幅降低由碳税政策实施所引起的经济损失。基于此,政策制定者应尽量避免决策的短视化;在实施政策时尽量多打"组合拳",以碳定价政策为主,补贴政策为辅;此外,还应把握好全国统一碳排放权交易市场带来的排放控制机遇,充分发挥其与可再生能源补贴政策体系的协同效应,服务于INDC目标的顺利达成。

China＇s INDC targets has proposed to achieve a carbon dioxide emissions peak and let the proportion of non fossil energy consumption account for 20% in 2030. Thus the policy combinations are essential for achieving the targets. By developing a Chinese integrated assessment model,we systematically examine the potential relationships between the attainment of China＇s energy and climate targets,particularly explore the roles of carbon pricing and subsidy portfolios in achieving the committed INDC targets and the related policy costs. Results reveal that carbon pricing policy and subsidy play different roles in reaching different policy targets. The achievements of China＇s energy and carbon-peaking targets may be both conflicted and synergetic,depending on the specific trade-offs between carbon pricing and subsidy policies.In fact,the increase of policy strength of subsidies in the portfolios is beneficial to improve the synergetic effect and largely reduce the policy costs resulting from carbon pricing policies. On this basis,we need to make energy and climate policies from a long-term perspective,with great attentions on policy synergism,which could be formidably achieved by the mix policy of carbon taxes and alternative subsidies. Furthermore,the well-established national unified carbon trading system should be sufficiently taken advantage of to contribute to such policy synergetic effects and serve for the attainment of China＇s INDC targets.