基于能源强度和经济增长目标的京津冀产业结构优化研究

Optimization of Industrial Structure Based on Goals of Energy Intensity and Economic Growth for Jing-Jin-Ji

本文通过构建三次产业结构影响能源强度的岭回归模型,并分解三次产业结构间及其与能源强度间的相关系数,揭示产业结构对能源强度的影响机理,进而结合"十三五"节能和经济增长目标提炼降低京津冀能源强度的产业结构优化路径。结果显示:经济增长目标下,北京市和河北省的产业结构优化不能完成节能目标;而节能目标下,天津市的产业结构优化不能完成经济增长目标;因此,北京市应通过节能倒逼第三产业内部升级,河北省应通过节能倒逼工业化进程加速,天津市应在保障经济增长的前提下大力发展先进制造业。

This paper constructs a ridge regression model referring to industrial structure and energy intensity,then decomposes the correlation coefficient between industry structure and energy intensity,to reveal the influence mechanism of industrial structure on energy intensity and refine the path of industrial structure optimization to reduce energy intensity,based on goals of energy saving and economic growth set in 13 th Five Year Plan. Results show： under the target of economic growth,the industrial structure optimization cannot meet the energy saving target in Beijing and Hebei, while under the target of economic growth, the industrial structure optimization of Tianjin cannot achieve the target of economic growth. Therefore,Beijing should drive internal upgrading of the third industry through energy saving,and Hebei should drive acceleration of the industrialization process,whereas Tianjin should vigorously develop advanced manufacturing in the premise of ensuring economic growth.