考虑集体行为逻辑的谣言扩散模型

The rumor diffusion model considering the logic of collective behavior

考虑到谣言扩散过程中的集体行为逻辑,基于Bass模型引入并量化观念领导、跟随者及真实信息反馈者3个因素,构建Bass-SIR谣言传播模型,对模型进行数值仿真,研究谣言扩散过程中个体微观决策共同涌现出的宏观动力学行为。研究表明,观念领导分布对谣言扩散过程前期具有决定性影响,分布概率越高,谣言扩散速度越快;在谣言扩散过程中后期,跟随者影响力较大,分布概率增大,谣言扩散程度随之增大;真实信息反馈者增多,谣言扩散程度降低。研究结果对制定抑制谣言扩散措施提出了针对性建议,可减少谣言扩散的危害。

Considering the collective behavior logic of rumor diffusion,three factors,including the concept leaders,followers and real information feedbacks,are introduced to construct the Bass-SIR（susceptible infected recovered）rumor propagation model based on the Bass model.The dynamic behavior that emerges together with individual micro-decisions in the process of rumor diffusion is studied through numerical simulation.It is shown that the distribution of concept leadership presents a decisive influence on the early stage of diffusion process.The higher the distribution probability is,the faster the diffusion rate is.In the late process of rumor propagation,the followers have great influence.As the probability of distribution increased,the spread of rumors increases.As the number of true information feedbacks increased,the diffusion of rumors decreases.The suggestions on how to suppress the spread of rumors are proposed to reduce the harm caused by the proliferation of rumors.