实力、认知、体系压力:印度“入常”再探析

Power,Cognition and System Pressure:Analysis on India's Entry into Being a Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council

自1994年在第49届联合国大会上第一次正式提出成为安理会常任理事国的要求以来,印度为实现"入常",曾借助多样化的外交手段在不同的国际场合与外事活动中纵横捭阖。回顾这段历程,数十年间国际局势斗转星移,印度的现存实力与发展潜力也日益得到认可,"入常"却屡遭挫折。为什么印度"入常"难以实现?一是源于印度自我认知和实力之间的矛盾,这种矛盾使其实力无法满足自己对于自身的定位和想要谋求的利益。二是自我的认知和实力与体系压力之间的矛盾,即体系的延续性、滞后性与阻力和印度实力、认知之间的矛盾。通过分析得出,未来印度"入常"的前景依旧难以乐观。

Since the first formal request of the permanent member of the United Nations Security Council at the forty-ninth United Nations General Assembly in 1994,India has sought the permanent membership of the UN Security Council on various international occasions and foreign affairs with the help of a variety of diplomatic means. Although the international situation has been changing for decades,India＇s own power has been improving. Joining the UN Security Council＇s permanent members is still difficult. Why is it so difficult for India to realize its dream of joining the UN Security Council？ The existing researches provide a lot of explanation. In this paper,the author tries to select three dimensions to systematically comb it,namely,the structural contradiction between India＇s strength,international system pressure and India self cognition,and make a prediction that the future of India＇s accession to the permanent member of the United Nations Security Council is still pessimistic.