兴海县近55年气候变化特征及突变分析

The Characteristics and Mutation Analysis of Climate Change in Xinghai County in Recent 55 Years

利用1961—2015年兴海县气温、降水、积雪等地面观测资料,对年代际的气候变化特征及突变进行了分析。结果表明,近55年来年平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温变化倾向率分别为0.30、0.32、0.34℃/10年,年及四季增温显著;21世纪初,年代平均气温与20世纪60年代相比升高了1.5~1.4℃;年大风和沙尘暴日数增多趋势不明显,20世纪70—90年代是近55年来大风和沙尘暴的高发期。M-K检验分析表明,1986年年平均气温发生了突变,冬季气温突变发生最早(1971年),春季气温突变发生最晚(1994年);年降水变化倾向率为9.99 mm/10年;年降水量最大值出现在2000年;年降水量突变发生在2003年,春、夏、秋3季降水突变分别发生于1981、2004、2009年,降水总体呈缓慢增多趋势。

Based on the surface observational data of air temperature, precipitation and snow cover in Xinghai County during 1961-2015, the characteristics and mutation analysis of climate change were analyzed. The results showed that the tendency rate of the annual averaged air temperature, averaged maximum temperature and averaged minimum temperature was 0.30, 0.32, 0.34℃/10 a, respectively.The temperature increasing was significant in a year and all season.At the beginning of the 21st century, the annual averaged air temperature rose up to 1.5-1.4℃ comparing to the 1960s,the increasing tendency of annual gale and sand storm was insignificant. In 1970-1990, those 20 years were the high-incidence season of gale and sand storm in recent 55 years. The M-K check and analysis showed that the averaged air temperature appeared mutation in 1986, the winter’s air temperature mutation occurred in 1971, the spring’s air temperature mutation occurred in 1994.The annual precipitation’s tendency rate was 9.99 mm/10 a. The maximum of annual rainfall amount occurred in 2000.The mutation of precipitation occurred in 2003, the mutation of spring, summer and autumn occurred in 1981, 2004,2009, respectively. The precipitation’s tendency was the increase of total.