1961-2016鄱阳湖区降水变化特征研究

Precipitation Variation Characteristics in Poyang Lake Region during 1961-2016

依据1961-2016年鄱阳湖区11个站点实测降水数据,通过距平分析、线性回归、小波分析和功率谱分析等方法,分析了鄱阳湖区降水量的年内与年际特征。结果表明:鄱阳湖区多年平均降水量为1 538.34 mm,其年内降水分配不均,主要集中在春夏两季,且湖东多于湖西,湖南多于湖北;鄱阳湖区旱涝出现频率相当,偏涝年份多于偏旱年份,其丰水期和少水期以20余年周期交替出现;鄱阳湖区年降水量以4-7 a、11-13 a和22 a的周期波动,这与厄尔尼诺和太阳黑子活动的周期一致;鄱阳湖区年降水量呈增加的趋势,幅度为31.71mm/10a,其中湖南区增速最大。

Based on precipitation data of 11 stations in Poyang Lake District in 1961-2016 years,the annual and inter-annual characteristics of precipitation in Poyang Lake district were analyzed by means of anomaly analysis,linear regression,wavelet analysis and power spectrum analysis. The results show that the average rainfall in Poyang Lake area for many years is 1 538. 34 mm,which distribution unevenly,mainly concentrated in the spring and summer. The precipitation in the South and east of the lake is more severe than in the north and west of the lake; The frequency of drought and flood in Poyang Lake district is roughly the same as that of partial flood more than years of drought,the wet period and dry period alternating over 20 years; And the annual precipitation in Poyang Lake area waved by 4-7 a,11-13 a and 22 a,which is consistent with El Nino and sunspot activity; Annual precipitation in Poyang Lake area is increased and the amplitude of 31. 71 mm/10 a,among which the largest growth rate in the south of lack.