新疆北部雨季降水对ENSO的响应

Response of the Rainy Season Precipitation in Northern Xinjiang to ENSO Event

分析研究了新疆北部地区近 50年 (1 951～ 2 0 0 0年 )全年各月降水的气候分布特征和各季降水的年际变化规律 ,重点揭示了北疆多雨季节 (4～ 7月 )及各月降水量对赤道东太平洋的海温SST和南方涛动指数SOI的显著响应关系 ,并用前期SST和SOI作为预报因子 ,建立了北疆地区雨季降水量的预报方程。

The climatic distribution features of the monthly precipitation and the annual variation of the seasonal precipitation from 1951 to 2000 in the Northern Xinjiang are analyzed. And the obvious response of the precipitation of the rainy season (AMJJ) and the monthly precipitation in the Northern Xinjiang (average for 5 stations) to SST over the equatorial eastern Pacific and to southern oscillation index (SOI) are revealed emphatically.Furthermore,by using SST and SOI in the previous period as the predictors,the predictive equation of precipitation during the rainy season in the Northern Xinjiang is set up.The equation has the great application value for the long-range forecast of the rainy season precipitation in the region.